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Problem: Data Traffic Growing Faster Than Revenues

Without a doubt, there is a growing problem of mobile data consumption vs. revenue: perhaps 100X growth of aggregate data vs. 2X growth of revenue (in the next 5 years). This growth in data consumption is reflected in operators’ measurements as well as analysts’ forecasts, and this trend is based on clear drivers that we can observe today. Operators recognize this threat to future Mobile Internet service profitability, and therefore Mobile Network Operator (MNO) profitability (as revenues shift inexorably from voice to data revenues).

Growth is Real, and Exploding

The rapid growth of data consumption is real, has been observed by many operators. Vodafone, for example, exemplifies the rapid growth in the last, two years, from a trickle to a volume that exceeds their voice traffic in European markets that they serve (see figure). This growth has been driven by many factors, including flat-rate and modestly-priced data plans.

Over time, this becomes problematic, as forecasts anticipate 100X traffic levels that threaten to overwhelm current networks. Current forecasts-based on observed MNO data traffic growth-anticipate at least a 2X growth per year over the next 5 years [Cisco, 2008], and perhaps growth of 300X to 500X over 10 years (from 2007-2017) [3Gamericas, 2008].  A recent Cisco study combined actual MNO traffic with analysts’ forecasts for mobile internet growth, and concluded that this trend would continue for at least the 5-year planning horizon, with data traffic more than doubling each year (see figure).

An independent assessment came to the same conclusion (data traffic doubling each year), while tracking the growth over a longer time frame (10 years, 2007-2018).  The 3GAmericas study expects this trend to continue through 2018 (based on observed traffic and trends in service usage), as illustrated below.

Recent traffic increases have exceeded this estimate: “six to fourteen times more data is being used on mobile broadband networks today than in the previous year.” Frost & Sullivan recently reported [April 2009] – with “average users downloading more than 5GB per month.”

Isn’t Increasing Data Use “A Good Problem to Have”?

Yes, increasing consumption of data services is a good problem to have … up to a point.  Operators have been trying for a decade to entice subscribers with data services, recognizing that this is their future, as voice usage eventually reaches a peak and pricing becomes commoditized. However, there is a dark side that is emerging: the rapid growth of data consumption is increasingly a concern to the degree that is expands faster than revenues; if costs increase without a similar increase in revenues, then the business is at risk, and something must be done to reduce overall costs to maintain profitability.  Essentially, “data traffic is growing much faster than data revenues,” [Mike Roberts, Informa, 6/2008]

Why Is Data Consumption Rapidly Increasing?

Data growth is expanding due to (a) broad adoption of data services by subs (espec. on flat data plans that encourage use), (b) better devices (such as the iPhone and imitators), and (c) more, attractive data services (such as YouTube, Location-Based Services, Social networking, IM, Mobile TV, and thousands of downloadable Apps).

A) More Subscribers on Mobile Internet Data Plans
Developed markets will easily see 40% of subscribers on a data plan by 2012, most on a “Flat Rate” plan that encourages use (without a penalty of incremental cost for incremental use) [Forrester, 2008].  This trend is so strong that mobile Internet subscribers are expected to outnumber fixed Internet subscribers in 2011 (see figure).

B) More Capable Internet Devices
“The iPhone.” Need I say more? OK, the IPhone has redefined how subscribers can use the mobile Internet, and established that the masses can and will browse, use Location-Based Services, watch YouTube video, download and install applications, and more. iPhone users consume many times more data than average consumers, even those with media capabilities (see figure). Consequently, everyone is rushing to achieve similar success, and more. The network effect is a radical leap in data consumption by End Users-exactly what the MNOs desired, as this establishes that consumers will use data services, if they are simple, fun, and useful. Smartphone users consume car more data than the average subscriber. And smartphones are becoming a common purchase of consumers (although business users led the adoption). By 2011, 30% of the handsets sold in developed markets will be smartphones [Gartner, 2008].

C) More Services Used
End Users are consuming more services as a result of better devices and a wider variety of applications. Apple’s App Store, for example, has defined a model of data services on demand that is widely appealing, with 500 M downloads in less than a year of operation [Apple, 2008], establishing that there is a large market for data services [Piper Jaffray, 2008].

Summary: Data Growth Based on Strong Fundamentals

MNOs have a serious problem on their hand-data consumption growing out of control and out of synch with revenues-that is based on strong fundamentals. We see it already in current use, and the future certainly holds far greater growth due to all of the drivers: more data subscribers, flat rate plans, more capable devices, and more attractive services. We will discuss this business problem in greater depth in the next section, “100X Data Growth vs. 2X Revenue Growth.”

100X Data Growth vs. 2X Revenue Growth

Having established that data traffic is expanding rapidly (see the previous post, Data Traffic Growing Faster Than Revenues) for fundamental, long-term reasons, let’s explore the central business problem: high growth in costs vs. modest revenue growth.

MNOs have turned to data services for revenue growth, recognizing that End Users have largely satisfied their demand for voice communication. As prices fell for a voice minute of use (just as with Long Distance before that), subscribers could afford to purchase more minutes for their dollar, but at a point their demand was sated and they had no desire to consume more.  SMS has certainly provided an unexpectedly large increase in data use, but that is, like voice, largely played out. What next? Since 2001, with the introduction of the Mobile Internet, MNOs have focused on increasing revenue (APRU) by creating attractive data services: browsing, information, entertainment, and new communication services. Now, almost 10 years later, it appears that they have succeeded … and their problem has become, ironically, too much demand.

Data traffic is growing out of pace with revenues. Data is growing at a torrid pace since the introduction of high-speed and high-capacity, 3G networks a few years ago. Many operators have reported aggregate increases in data traffic far exceeding the 100% growth rate that is anticipated for the next 5 years. Revenue has certainly increased significantly, but only incrementally. No consumer is willing to pay 10X their current monthly bill, so the revenue increase is measured in a fractional increase of the current revenue, not multiples, and certainly not tens or hundreds of multiples.

The Danger of Flat-Rate (Unlimited) Service Plans

The main culprit in unrestrained usage is unrestrained service plans: flat rate pricing. Although (like prepaid) these plans are simple for subscribers to understand, and very attractive in avoiding unpleasant surprises, they invite unrestrained use with no marginal revenues. Although consumers are attracted to unlimited plans, the operator is then stuck with a subscriber that is not generating any additional revenue. Eventually, flat rate plans will have to go, or at least be modified and restricted to manage costs and maintain profitability. We can already see caps emerging in mature, fixed, broadband networks, where the access cost is quite low (relative to mobile Internet): Comcast (in the U.S.) has imposed usage caps on high-speed Cable Internet service customers to limit excessive use and eliminate abuse, and ensure that costs do not balloon, so that service and pricing is maintained for normal customers. Flat-rate pricing is unsustainable, leading to unrestrained usage with no incremental compensation.

Flat-rate plans have been very popular with subscribers; Operators have successfully employed flat-rate plans to sign up a wave of new users to 3G data plans.

• Significant adoption:
  “Vodafone says it signed up 2 million consumer customers to its flat-rate mobile Internet plans in 2007.” ["Mobile traffic boom to revive base station market, Mike Roberts, Informa, 7 July 2008]
• Mobile Internet is included:
  Vodafone UK includes access to the internet and email on their mobile as an integral part of the monthly price plan. “Every plan will automatically include internet access”(Note: for post-paid customers, not pre-paid) ["Unlimited Internet on New Voda Plans," Mobile Business Magazine, 7 May 2008]
• Many operators employing Flat-rate Data Plans:
  “The best examples for flat, mobile broadband offerings can be found in the Austrian market. T-Mobile has launched Fairclick for €25 which includes 10GB data volume on HSDPA. When it comes to content flat fee, again H3G sets currently the top benchmarks. The X-Series which has been launched in the European H3G countries as well as in Australia and Hong Kong, comprises of a wide range of value added services, such as unlimited instant messaging, Skype calls, web surfing and mobile TV via Slingbox streaming.” [Arthur D Little "The World is Becoming Flat," Technology & Media INSIGHT, 2008]

Whither Flat-Rate Plans?
Flat-rate plans have proven very popular with subscribers, and so they will be difficult for Operators to give up. I suspect that they will be slowly morphed and restricted to allow Operators to charge for some services, especially content and bandwidth-intensive services such as Mobile TV, or person-person video.

Data Revenue Doubling (over 5 years)

Now that the data services are becoming more popular, operators are striving for significant increases in ARPU-perhaps a doubling of average revenue per customer-as demonstrated by the excellent revenue/user of iPhone subscribers. Forecasts suggest that MNOs may see roughly a doubling in mobile data revenues over the next 5 years:

• “Global mobile data revenues will increase 77% from 2007 to 2012″ [Informa, 2008]
  “The traffic boom will be driven by a dramatic increase in the use of advanced applications such as mobile browsing and video-for example mobile video traffic will grow more than thirty-fold by 2012, according to Mobile Networks Forecasts.” ["Mobile traffic boom to revive base station market, Mike Roberts, Informa, 7 July 2008] Annual data services will more than double from $148 billion dollars in 2007 to $347 billion dollars in 2013 [Informa Telecoms & Media, 2008].
• “Mobile data revenue will double by 2012″ [Pyramid, 2008]
  “By our estimates, mobile data will account for 29% of the global mobile service revenue in 2012, up from 19% in 2007. Clearly, the mobile data opportunity is soaring: the 2007 mobile data revenue was more than double what it was in 2004, and we expect it to double again to US$300bn by 2012.” … and 20% of this is SMS in developed markets, 45% in Emerging markets. ["Mobile data revenue will double by 2012," Dan Locke, Analyst Insight, Pyramid, 4/2008]

Note that this increase in revenue is largely due to IP-based services, not SMS (see figure). “In 2012, in emerging markets, SMS will still comprise 45% of data ARPS in contrast to less than a quarter in developed markets.”

Operator Solution: Cut Costs

Rampant data use without commensurate compensation? Better cut the cost of the data use, right? That’s exactly what is happening. Operators are looking to reduce the cost of delivering each bit. This problem will not be solved with a single, silver bullet, but will require cost efficiencies in many areas, which is the topic of our next analysis: “Solutions for Expanding Data Usage.”